Guest Post : Predicting the Grand Slam shocks

With the Grand Slam year beginning last week in Melbourne, it’s a perfect time to look at some Grand Slam betting trends that may offer us an edge in our tennis betting this year.

In this article we will be taking at look at how players, both men and women, have performed at Grand Slam tournaments when coming off a win at odds of 3.00 or greater in Grand Slam matches played since the start 2008.

The Men

Let’s begin by taking a look at how players coming off an upset result have performed in their next match in men’s Grand Slam tournaments since 2008.

Head To Head Profitability

Over this timespan, there have been 254 men’s Grand Slam matches where an underdog priced at odds of 3.00 or greater has won the match. 241 of their next matches concluded without retirement or an ‘walkover’ due to injury. Of those 241 matches, the player coming off the upset result, won their next match on 70 occasions, losing 141, for a winning percentage across the 241 completed matches of just over 29%.

These figures don’t really offer us much in terms of betting. What we are interested in is how these players performed against bookmaker odds.

MensProfitability

The chart above shows us the profitability of players coming off an upset result and their opponents when betting at even stakes across each of the 241 matches since 2008. (By profitability at ‘even stakes’, we consider the profit/loss return if we had bet the same amount for each match. For example, if we bet an even stake of £1 on an individual player to win across 100 matches they had played, we would have bet a total of £100 on them. If across those 100 matches our bets returned a total profit of £5, we would call it a +5% return betting at even stakes.)

So what do the results tell us? Well, although betting against players coming off an upset result would not have returned you a profit betting at even stakes (a loss returned of near on -1%), had you bet on players coming off an upset result at even stakes, you would have suffered a loss of almost -35%.

Playing Back To Back Matches As Underdogs

But let’s break it down a little further and look at players coming off an upset win at odds of 3.00 or greater, and see how they have performed in the following match when playing once again at odds of 3.00 or greater.

MensProfitability300

Since 2008, there have been 126 completed men’s Grand Slam matches where an underdog coming off an upset at odds of 3.00 or more has played in their next match as underdogs in this range once again. The chart above shows the profitability for players coming off an upset win at odds of 3.00 or greater and backing up again in their next match at odds of 3.00 or greater. As we can see, backing players to overcome such odds in consecutive matches has returned a loss near on -56%. Horrific. Meanwhile, had you backed against such players, you would have earned an even stake return of almost +3%.

Games Handicap Results

Before we conclude our look at the men, let’s look at how such players have performed against the games handicap. By ‘games handicap’ we are referring here to a handicap that bookmakers set (typically at close to even money odds of 1.91) that takes into consideration the total number of games won and lost by each of the competing players. For example, if a player has been given a handicap of -5.5 games, for your bet to win, the player must win a total number of games in the match of at least 6 greater than their opponent. Taking into account standard bookmaker odds of 1.91, a strikerate of 54% or above when betting on such handicaps is more than enough to make consistent profits.

MensGH

The chart above shows game handicap winning percentages for players coming off an upset and their opponents, both in all matches and in matches where the player coming off the upset was playing once again at odds of 3.00 or greater. As we can see, particularly when such players have played back to back games as underdogs of 3.00 or greater, it has been sharp to bet on their opponents in terms of the games handicap, with a near on 60% winning rate on what bookmakers post typically as a 50-50 proposition.

The Women

So let’s now see if we can identify similar results when we look at women’s Grand Slam matches played since 2008.

Head To Head Profitability

Over this timeframe, there have been 292 women’s Grand Slam matches where an underdog priced at odds of 3.00 or greater won the match. 288 of their next matches concluded without retirement or an ‘walkover’ due to injury. Of those 288 matches, the player coming off the upset result, won their next match on 89 occasions, losing 199, for a winning percentage across the 288 completed matches of just under 31%.

But again, these numbers offer us little in terms of betting. What we want to know is how such players have performed against bookmaker expectations.

WomensProfitability

The chart above shows us that had we bet against players coming off upset wins at odds of 3.00 or greater, we would have collected a profit at even stakes across the 288 completed matches of over 7%. Quite a solid return for such a single angle.

Playing Back To Back Matches As Underdogs

But will our results improve when we look at players coming off an upset playing once again at odds of 3.00 or greater? Let’s see.

WomensProfitability300

The chart above shows us that unlike the men, our returns did not improve when we filtered our results to only consider women playing back to back as underdogs of 3.00 or greater. While still posting a profit, it has been only marginal.

Games Handicap Results

Let’s now take a look at how women coming off an upset victory have performed against the games handicap.

WomensGH

As the chart above shows, the results are very similar to what we saw with the men, that backing against players coming off an upset win has been quite profitable. Further, despite a drop in head to head profitability when filtering our results for the women to consider only games featuring an underdog playing back to back at odds of 3.00 or greater, there was a slight increase in winning percentage against the games handicap in such matches.

Concluding Thoughts

While these trends should only be treated as part of your overall consideration rather than the foundation of any single bet, it’s hoped this analysis offers the reader an angle that can assist them in their betting throughtout each of the four Grand Slam tournaments of 2014. As we can see, in recent years it has been wise to stay away from or bet against, players coming off upset wins at odds of 3.00 or greater.

Good luck.

Looking for tennis betting tips? Check our Tennis Betting Tips Board for all our community’s tennis tips this year.

Source :  bettingexpert

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